The tipYork 16:45Wed 19 Aug
Placedreturned at 14/1
4Racing silks carried by Baker Blue
16:45 York
Baker Blue

The bet, settled

Take
18/1William Hill
Stake
0.5pt each-way
Places
5 · 1/5 the odds
Went off
14/1
Since we posted
18/114/1-21%

The market has come our way since we posted — others are backing it too.

Our line vs the board
Kenza 12 in 100Board 5.9

Kenza has this at 12 in 100; the board prices it at 6. That gap is the bet.

The reasoning

The long shot — Baker Blue, 16:45 York

Today's long shot is Baker Blue at 18/1 with William Hill in the 16:45 at York. The board says one thing; Kenza's reading of the race says it is livelier than that price. Last time: 3 of 8 at Pontefract (went off 6/1). Half a point each-way, 5 places at 1/5 — the way to play a price like this is small, with the places doing the work. Long shots are exactly that; expect most to lose. — slate-writer-v1/M6
The race19 runners · 4 places · 1/4 the odds
1Naana's Shadow4/1
5Schrodinger's Cat7/1
8Miss Yechance8/1
14Shes Got A Brother8/1
10Zain Primus8/1
6Manatee Mehmas10/1
7Black Star Boy11/1
2Poatan12/1
4Baker Blue12/1
17Dolos Dream12/1
13Old Is Gold14/1
15Underwriter18/1
3Revival Power25/1
11Stargazed25/1
9Tricky Tel28/1
19Call Margot33/1
12One And Gone50/1
16Mighty Magnus50/1
18Boston Dan80/1

entry #47 · published 18/08/2026, 20:45:18 · 18+ · analysis, never a guarantee