The tipNewbury 17:58Fri 14 Aug
Wonreturned at 14/1
5Racing silks carried by Assaranca
17:58 Newbury
Assaranca

The bet, settled

Take
18/1Bet365
Stake
0.5pt each-way
Places
3 · 1/5 the odds
Went off
14/1
Since we posted
12/114/1+15%

The market has gone the other way since we posted. We show that as readily as the other direction.

Our line vs the board
Kenza 13 in 100Board 5.3

Kenza has this at 13 in 100; the board prices it at 5. That gap is the bet.

The reasoning

The long shot — Assaranca, 17:58 Newbury

Today's long shot is Assaranca at 18/1 with Bet365 in the 17:58 at Newbury. The board says one thing; Kenza's reading of the race says it is livelier than that price. Last time: 9 of 11 at Ascot (went off 40/1). Half a point each-way, 3 places at 1/5 — the way to play a price like this is small, with the places doing the work. Long shots are exactly that; expect most to lose. — slate-writer-v1/M6
The race7 runners · 2 places · 1/4 the odds
1Zatsgood7/2
3Stratocracy4/1
7Lyra Lea4/1
2Walson's Law5/1
8Media Legend5/1
6Lightning Polka7/1
5Assaranca12/1

entry #32 · published 13/08/2026, 20:45:18 · 18+ · analysis, never a guarantee